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A Brief History of Asset Bubbles (part II)

October 29th, 2009

Over the next few weeks, I will be writing a series of pieces on trends in the global economic landscape, and what the implications of these trends are for investors. In this edition, we continue our examination of prior well-known asset bubbles in order to better establish a context and an investment philosophy for the coming years.

Please, click the following link for part I of our piece on asset bubbles.

What goes up must come down
– Sir Isaac Newton (1642-1727)

Inflation across the world surged in the 1970s following rampant increases in commodity prices and over-spending by government in response to the baby boom in the preceding decade. The major developed economies, led by the United States, unable to maintain the gold standard due to persistent trade and current account imbalances, call on the IMF to create a new synthetic currency, which essentially severed the ties between these countries’ currencies and gold. Investors flocked to commodity markets en masse following this decision out of fear that the ability of governments to print money without retribution would cause inflation to spiral out of control. Gold enjoyed a spectacular run, rising tenfold from 1973 before peaking intraday in February 1980 at $850/oz.

Gold Prices

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A Brief History of Asset Bubbles (part I)

October 19th, 2009

Over the next few weeks, I will be writing a series of pieces on trends in the global economic landscape, and what the implications of these trends are for investors. Before we begin, however, a brief history lesson is in order…

What goes up must come down
– Sir Isaac Newton (1642-1727)

Gravity is a conceptually simple, but mathematically complex physical phenomenon where in its presence, what goes up eventually must come down. Financial markets are no different, and our world is chock full of examples of speculative frenzies. While it is never fun to be involved when asset bubbles burst, history may provide some insight as to the conditions under which asset prices bubbles can develop, grow, and disappear. What I present below is a mere sketch of selected well-known asset bubbles. For more in-depth reading on the subject, I would recommend starting with Charles Kindleberger’s Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises.

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Battle Of The Banks: Canadian vs. U.S.

September 22nd, 2009

Comparing and contrasting large Canadian and U.S. banks

Global financial stocks have surged over 125% since having bottomed out in March. In the U.S., financials have more than doubled and in Canada have rallied over 90%. We believe that while financial stocks across the globe may still have more upside as the economy levels off and deal flow picks back up, discrimination will be instrumental going forward. Consistent with this, our favourite picks, which we feel offer the best risk/reward profile are the large Canadian banks. Indeed, all of the “big five” Canadian banks (Royal Bank (RY), CIBC (CM), TD Canada Trust (TD), ScotiaBank (BNS), and Bank of Montreal (BMO)) are on our “Strong buy” list, and are well-positioned to beat the market over a 3-12 month time horizon. This compares to the wide variety of ratings for U.S. banks, which range from “Strong buys” for Bank of America (BAC), J.P. Morgan (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC), to “Strong sells” for Citigroup (C) and Suntrust (STI).



Canadian vs U.S. banks
Note 1: Prices are shown adjusted for stock splits and dividends
Note 2: LS = Left Scale; RS = Right Scale
Sources: Yahoo! Finance for ETF prices and Bank of Canada for exchange rates
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